← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 73% | 71% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 5.93 | value: +6% |
| West Ham win | 10% | 11% | 9.70 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 34' | 🟨 | Juan Mata · Man United |
| 49' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · West Ham |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ryan Fredericks · West Ham |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Paul Pogba · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 133.00 | 347.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1958.76 | 1730.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.90 | -24.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 61.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.77 | 28.42 |
| state index | 1.11 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 265.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |