← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 57% | 54% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 16% | 4.20 | fair |
| Fulham win | 20% | 29% | 4.88 | value: +42% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Richarlison · Everton |
| 46' | ⚽ | Tom Cairney · Fulham |
| 48' | 🟨 | Tim Ream · Fulham |
| 57' | 🟨 | Maxime Le Marchand · Fulham |
| 69' | ⚽ | Ryan Babel · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 71.00 | 347.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1611.41 | 1801.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.40 | 46.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.88 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| league points | 17.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 27.10 |
| state index | -0.87 | 1.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 286.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |