← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 52% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.57 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 21% | 21% | 4.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Burnley |
| 42' | 🟨 | James Tarkowski · Burnley |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joe Bennett · Cardiff |
| 50' | 🟨 | Lee Peltier · Cardiff |
| 50' | 🟨 | Harry Arter · Cardiff |
| 82' | 🟨 | Víctor Camarasa · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Chris Wood · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2385.00 | 924.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1722.83 | 1654.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.20 | -13.45 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| league points | 36.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 62.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 31.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | -2.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.86 | 28.39 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -2.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 265.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |