← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 42% | 51% | 2.35 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 29% | 21% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Nathan Aké · Bournemouth |
| 33' | ⚽ | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
| 50' | 🟨 | Florin Andone · Brighton |
| 50' | 🟨 | Chris Mepham · Bournemouth |
| 55' | ⚽ | Ryan Fraser · Bournemouth |
| 64' | 🟨 | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
| 68' | 🟥 | Anthony Knockaert · Brighton |
| 71' | 🟨 | Artur Boruc · Bournemouth |
| 74' | ⚽ | David Brooks · Bournemouth |
| 78' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Brighton |
| 82' | ⚽ | Callum Wilson · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Junior Stanislas · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1594.00 |
| 2385.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1479.53 | 1510.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.59 | -23.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| league points | 33.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 28.27 | 24.60 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| travel km | — | 124.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |