← Premier League 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 58% | 61% | 1.68 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.86 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 16% | 13% | 5.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Newcastle |
| 41' | 🟨 | Youri Tielemans · Leicester |
| 63' | 🟨 | Sung-Yueng Ki · Newcastle |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kasper Schmeichel · Leicester |
| 74' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 77' | 🟨 | Javier Manquillo · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 47.00 | 1137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1776.01 | 1728.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.04 | -18.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 68.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| league points | 47.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.89 | 27.28 |
| state index | 1.31 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 263.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |