← Premier League 2018-19 · Mon, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 78% | 72% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 21% | 6.86 | value: +42% |
| West Ham win | 7% | 7% | 13.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Angelo Ogbonna · West Ham |
| 24' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 82' | 🟨 | César Azpilicueta · Chelsea |
| 84' | 🟨 | Kepa Arrizabalaga · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 281.00 | 342.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1928.67 | 1736.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.01 | -20.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| league points | 63.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.20 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.39 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.48 | 28.61 |
| state index | 1.59 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.40 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| travel km | — | 15.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |