← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 38% | 30% | 2.59 | fair |
| Everton win | 35% | 45% | 2.82 | value: +28% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Mattéo Guendouzi · Arsenal |
| 10' | ⚽ | Phil Jagielka · Everton |
| 25' | 🟨 | Sokratis · Arsenal |
| 50' | 🟨 | André Gomes · Everton |
| 82' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 86' | 🟨 | Nacho Monreal · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days | 341.00 | 341.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 4.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1789.64 | 1932.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.88 | 9.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.69 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| league points | 43.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.05 | 26.16 |
| state index | 1.34 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 285.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |