← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 35% | 37% | 2.81 | value: +5% |
| Crystal Palace win | 34% | 29% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.15 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Martin Kelly · Crystal Palace |
| 79' | 🟨 | Isaac Hayden · Newcastle |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 1131.00 | 582.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1740.31 | 1754.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.70 | -6.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.50 | 68.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| league points | 35.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 28.01 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 410.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |