← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Coote, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 58% | 49% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.08 | value: +17% |
| Huddersfield win | 18% | 22% | 5.42 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
| 24' | ⚽ | Youri Tielemans · Leicester |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jon Gorenc Stanković · Huddersfield |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Aaron Mooy · Huddersfield |
| 79' | ⚽ | James Maddison · Leicester |
| 84' | 🟨 | Terence Kongolo · Huddersfield |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 95.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1547.12 | 1766.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.85 | 29.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.90 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| league points | 14.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 26.40 |
| state index | -0.42 | 1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 122.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |