← Premier League 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 70% | 76% | 1.39 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 19% | 14% | 5.24 | fair |
| Southampton win | 11% | 10% | 8.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Shane Long · Southampton |
| 36' | ⚽ | Naby Keïta · Liverpool |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ryan Bertrand · Southampton |
| 80' | ⚽ | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mohamed Salah · Liverpool |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jordan Henderson · Liverpool |
| 89' | 🟨 | Andy Robertson · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Henderson · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 125.00 | 743.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1730.81 | 2061.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.14 | 9.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 66.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| league points | 33.00 | 79.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 2.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.58 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.43 | 27.02 |
| state index | 0.82 | 1.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.27 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 300.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |