← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 66% | 61% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.63 | value: +13% |
| Crystal Palace win | 13% | 14% | 7.59 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 55' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 80' | ⚽ | Christian Eriksen · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| coach days | 1737.00 | 579.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.19 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1955.37 | 1759.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -56.43 | 20.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 61.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.02 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.94 | 27.84 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.95 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 22.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |