← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 90% | 86% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 10% | 14.62 | value: +47% |
| Cardiff win | 4% | 4% | 25.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Kevin De Bruyne · Man City |
| 8' | 🟨 | Joe Bennett · Cardiff |
| 34' | 🟨 | Lee Peltier · Cardiff |
| 44' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 53' | 🟨 | Joe Ralls · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 4 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 3 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 1006.00 | 914.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.08 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.84 | 0.46 |
| elo | 2111.45 | 1656.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.51 | -30.72 |
| eye test v1 | 1.84 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| league points | 77.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.60 | 62.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 33.60 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 16.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.76 | -2.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 28.57 |
| state index | 2.66 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.36 | -2.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| travel km | — | 233.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |