← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 75% | 79% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 13% | 5.54 | fair |
| Brighton win | 8% | 8% | 12.69 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · Chelsea |
| 60' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 63' | ⚽ | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 276.00 | 1584.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1923.31 | 1686.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.22 | -16.32 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| league points | 60.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.25 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.56 | 27.38 |
| state index | 1.45 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.36 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 69.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |