← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 39% | 39% | 2.53 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 19% | 3.18 | fair |
| Wolves win | 31% | 42% | 3.19 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Scott McTominay · Man United |
| 25' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
| 38' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 42' | 🟨 | Diogo Dalot · Man United |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ashley Young · Man United |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ashley Young · Man United |
| 57' | 🟥 | Ashley Young · Man United |
| 77' | ⚽ (og) | Chris Smalling · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonny Otto · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days |
| 701.00 |
| 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1506.73 | 1782.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.56 | -0.06 |
| eye test v1 | -1.35 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.80 |
| league points | 44.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.48 | 27.43 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 97.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |