← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 55% | 60% | 1.76 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 18% | 3.84 | fair |
| Fulham win | 19% | 22% | 5.09 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 33' | ⚽ | Ryan Babel · Fulham |
| 44' | 🟨 | Adrian Mariappa · Watford |
| 47' | 🟨 | Daryl Janmaat · Watford |
| 63' | ⚽ | Will Hughes · Watford |
| 66' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Fulham |
| 69' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 75' | ⚽ | Kiko Femenía · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cyrus Christie · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.61 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 456.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1762.44 | 1619.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.36 | -27.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 43.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.86 | 25.87 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 23.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |