← Premier League 2018-19 · Mon, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 67% | 61% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 27% | 4.66 | value: +25% |
| Newcastle win | 12% | 12% | 8.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Aaron Ramsey · Arsenal |
| 59' | 🟨 | Nacho Monreal · Arsenal |
| 71' | 🟨 | Sead Kolašinac · Arsenal |
| 83' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 335.00 | 1126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.16 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1926.10 | 1746.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.48 | 17.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 72.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| league points | 60.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 17.75 | 15.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.89 | 27.88 |
| state index | 1.64 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 393.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |