← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 62% | 75% | 1.58 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 22% | 13% | 4.42 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 16% | 12% | 6.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 70' | ⚽ | Lucas Moura · Tottenham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lucas Moura · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Toby Alderweireld · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 738.00 | 1734.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.51 |
| elo | 2055.36 | 1961.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.97 | -46.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| league points | 76.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 21.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.45 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.43 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 26.82 |
| state index | 1.98 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | 0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 282.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |