← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 69% | 55% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.70 | value: +4% |
| Cardiff win | 11% | 23% | 9.28 | value: +113% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Jorginho · Chelsea |
| 46' | ⚽ | Víctor Camarasa · Cardiff |
| 54' | 🟨 | Harry Arter · Cardiff |
| 61' | 🟨 | César Azpilicueta · Chelsea |
| 84' | ⚽ | César Azpilicueta · Chelsea |
| 86' | 🟨 | Aron Gunnarsson · Cardiff |
| 87' | 🟨 | Antonio Rüdiger · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ruben Loftus-Cheek · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 911.00 | 273.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1661.12 | 1918.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.05 | -11.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| league points | 28.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.80 | 65.80 |
| rest days | 21.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.51 | 2.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 28.52 | 27.27 |
| state index | 0.10 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.09 | 1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 208.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |