← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 35% | 36% | 2.77 | fair |
| Everton win | 35% | 35% | 2.78 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Kurt Zouma · Everton |
| 33' | ⚽ | Bernard · Everton |
| 42' | 🟨 | Richarlison · Everton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Declan Rice · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 3 | Shots | 17 |
| 1 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 333.00 | 333.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 1.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1752.95 | 1772.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.29 | 25.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 42.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.56 | 26.13 |
| state index | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 292.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |