← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 69% | 73% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | 5.22 | fair |
| Watford win | 12% | 11% | 7.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Will Hughes · Watford |
| 28' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 72' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 82' | 🟨 | Adam Masina · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Man United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.67 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days |
| 119.00 |
| 453.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1778.96 | 1564.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.22 | 24.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| league points | 58.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 6.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.24 | 28.97 |
| state index | 0.99 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| travel km | — | 238.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |