← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 53% | 63% | 1.83 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 25% | 18% | 3.93 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 22% | 18% | 4.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Wes Morgan · Leicester |
| 71' | 🟨 | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
| 81' | 🟨 | David Brooks · Bournemouth |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 34.00 | 2371.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1754.05 | 1742.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.37 | -2.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 67.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| league points | 41.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | -1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 25.30 |
| state index | 0.62 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 215.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |