← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 87% | 80% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 11% | 12.03 | value: +34% |
| Fulham win | 5% | 9% | 18.37 | value: +63% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 27' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 67' | 🟨 | Cyrus Christie · Fulham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Maxime Le Marchand · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 24 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 11 |
| 4 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 57.00 | 1002.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 4.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.83 |
| elo | 1622.08 | 2109.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.00 | 21.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 1.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 17.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 89.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 69.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.55 | 2.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | 14.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 2.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 28.03 |
| state index | -0.76 | 2.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 260.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |