← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 66% | 67% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.42 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 12% | 15% | 8.32 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 88' | ⚽ | Patrick van Aanholt · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| coach days | 575.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| 1.00 |
| -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1552.81 | 1363.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.47 | -15.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.70 | 48.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| league points | 33.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.99 | 25.74 |
| state index | 0.17 | -1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 275.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |