← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 35% | 36% | 2.78 | fair |
| Burnley win | 34% | 40% | 2.89 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 31% | 24% | 3.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ (og) | Conor Coady · Burnley |
| 67' | 🟨 | Dwight McNeil · Burnley |
| 77' | ⚽ | Dwight McNeil · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rúben Neves · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2371.00 | 698.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 3.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1687.59 | 1784.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.23 | -3.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.30 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 30.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.48 | 26.77 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 133.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |