← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 38% | 39% | 2.56 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 35% | 3.08 | value: +9% |
| Southampton win | 30% | 25% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Dale Stephens · Brighton |
| 53' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Southampton |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1580.00 | 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1697.15 | 1719.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.97 | 5.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.77 |
| league points | 33.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.34 | 25.49 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 91.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |