← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 81% | 81% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 12% | 8.33 | fair |
| Fulham win | 7% | 7% | 13.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 39' | 🟨 | Fabinho · Liverpool |
| 65' | 🟨 | André Zambo Anguissa · Fulham |
| 74' | ⚽ | Ryan Babel · Fulham |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | James Milner · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Bryan · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days |
| 44.00 |
| 724.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1365.05 | 1859.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.58 | 4.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| league points | 17.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 2.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 1.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.65 | 26.58 |
| state index | -1.29 | 1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 285.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |