← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 53% | 58% | 1.85 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.75 | fair |
| Everton win | 21% | 23% | 4.68 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Marcos Alonso · Chelsea |
| 49' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Everton |
| 59' | 🟨 | André Gomes · Everton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Antonio Rüdiger · Chelsea |
| 72' | ⚽ | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Goodison Park |
| coach days |
| 320.00 |
| 259.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1555.17 | 1769.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.15 | 31.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.54 |
| league points | 37.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 1.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.32 | 25.87 |
| state index | -0.17 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 287.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |