← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 64% | 67% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.35 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 14% | 16% | 6.93 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Mark Noble · West Ham |
| 17' | ⚽ | Juninho Bacuna · Huddersfield |
| 30' | ⚽ | Karlan Grant · Huddersfield |
| 65' | ⚽ | Karlan Grant · Huddersfield |
| 74' | 🟨 | Alex Pritchard · Huddersfield |
| 75' | ⚽ | Angelo Ogbonna · West Ham |
| 78' | 🟨 | Philip Billing · Huddersfield |
| 84' | ⚽ | Javier Hernández · West Ham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Javier Hernández · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days |
| 319.00 |
| 74.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.49 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1544.39 | 1367.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.44 | -14.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 47.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| league points | 39.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.33 | 26.28 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 264.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |