← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 40% | 35% | 2.43 | fair |
| Burnley win | 30% | 23% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 42% | 3.33 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟥 | Harry Maguire · Leicester |
| 33' | ⚽ | James Maddison · Leicester |
| 34' | 🟨 | James Maddison · Leicester |
| 36' | 🟨 | Phil Bardsley · Burnley |
| 38' | ⚽ | Dwight McNeil · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Wes Morgan · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2357.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1698.00 | 1743.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.06 | -18.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.60 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| league points | 30.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.98 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.25 | 25.74 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 148.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |