← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 46% | 46% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.56 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 27% | 28% | 3.64 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Ayoze Pérez · Newcastle |
| 19' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jordon Ibe · Bournemouth |
| 45' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · Newcastle |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 75' | 🟨 | Isaac Hayden · Newcastle |
| 81' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 83' | 🟨 | Charlie Daniels · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matt Ritchie · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 2357.00 | 1110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1744.03 | 1744.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.73 | 18.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.60 | 70.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| league points | 37.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.55 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 27.21 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 471.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |