← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 83% | 88% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 8% | 8.19 | fair |
| Burnley win | 6% | 4% | 17.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Ashley Westwood · Burnley |
| 7' | 🟨 | Alisson · Liverpool |
| 19' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 29' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 67' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 71' | 🟨 | Fabinho · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jóhann Guðmundsson · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 4 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 717.00 | 2351.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| elo | 2050.64 | 1700.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.09 | 4.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 68.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| league points | 70.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.41 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.70 | -1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.35 | 28.41 |
| state index | 1.86 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.37 | -1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 62.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |