← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 61% | 61% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.89 | fair |
| Wolves win | 14% | 13% | 7.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Matt Doherty · Wolves |
| 56' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Wolves |
| 66' | 🟨 | Romain Saïss · Wolves |
| 75' | 🟨 | Willy Boly · Wolves |
| 78' | 🟨 | Antonio Rüdiger · Chelsea |
| 80' | 🟨 | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 2 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 13 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| 252.00 |
| 678.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1763.86 | 1512.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.91 | 17.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | — |
| league points | 56.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.06 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.73 | 26.09 |
| state index | 1.41 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.45 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 181.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |