← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 36% | 46% | 2.73 | value: +25% |
| Everton win | 33% | 33% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 21% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
| 32' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Everton |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jamaal Lascelles · Newcastle |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jonjoe Kenny · Everton |
| 65' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · Newcastle |
| 70' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 81' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Newcastle |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Newcastle |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jonjo Shelvey · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 1103.00 | 312.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1735.62 | 1761.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.34 | -8.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.10 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 31.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.88 | 26.89 |
| state index | 0.79 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 192.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |