← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 87% | 82% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 14% | 11.44 | value: +66% |
| Watford win | 4% | 4% | 21.87 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · Man City |
| 18' | 🟨 | Tom Cleverley · Watford |
| 46' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 50' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 59' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 66' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 2 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 981.00 | 432.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.34 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.32 |
| elo | 2106.32 | 1768.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.27 | 31.00 |
| eye test v1 | 1.74 | -0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| league points | 71.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.45 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.00 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.39 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.72 | 29.81 |
| state index | 2.61 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.20 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| travel km | — | 237.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |