← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Coote, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 61% | 65% | 1.60 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.36 | fair |
| Fulham win | 17% | 16% | 5.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Youri Tielemans · Leicester |
| 51' | ⚽ | Floyd Ayité · Fulham |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ryan Babel · Fulham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Joe Bryan · Fulham |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 86' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 13.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1735.18 | 1632.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.03 | -40.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| league points | 35.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.51 | 26.99 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 142.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |