← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 52% | 41% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 41% | 3.32 | value: +35% |
| Brighton win | 19% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Anthony Knockaert · Brighton |
| 19' | ⚽ | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 24' | 🟨 | Martín Montoya · Brighton |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 70' | 🟨 | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 74' | ⚽ | Anthony Knockaert · Brighton |
| 89' | 🟨 | Scott Dann · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bernardo · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathew Ryan · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 554.00 | 1559.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1768.41 | 1683.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.09 | -34.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.90 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| league points | 33.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.67 | 27.12 |
| state index | 0.97 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 59.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |