← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 36% | 35% | 2.75 | fair |
| Watford win | 35% | 34% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.32 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 13' | 🟨 | Adrian Mariappa · Watford |
| 60' | 🟨 | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 61' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 62' | 🟨 | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 75' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andre Gray · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 426.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1761.02 | 1742.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.49 | -17.45 |
| eye test v1 | -1.05 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.56 |
| league points | 40.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.78 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.86 | 25.49 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 119.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |