← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 68% | 72% | 1.43 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 20% | 14% | 4.85 | fair |
| Fulham win | 11% | 13% | 8.62 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Chelsea |
| 22' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Fulham |
| 27' | ⚽ | Calum Chambers · Fulham |
| 31' | ⚽ | Jorginho · Chelsea |
| 51' | 🟨 | Kevin McDonald · Fulham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jorginho · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 30.00 | 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1636.81 | 1930.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.29 | 17.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| league points | 17.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.61 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | 1.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.35 | 28.61 |
| state index | -0.27 | 1.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | 1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 2.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |