← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 55% | 70% | 1.78 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 28% | 17% | 3.55 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 17% | 14% | 5.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Diogo Jota · Wolves |
| 18' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Wolves |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ryan Bennett · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sol Bamba · Cardiff |
| 62' | 🟨 | Lee Peltier · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 670.00 | 882.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.91 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1771.32 | 1651.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.58 | -8.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 66.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| league points | 40.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 62.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 31.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -2.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.49 | 28.50 |
| state index | 0.82 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -2.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| travel km | — | 144.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |