← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 49% | 61% | 2.02 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.59 | fair |
| Arsenal win | 24% | 18% | 4.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Aaron Ramsey · Arsenal |
| 58' | 🟨 | Henrikh Mkhitaryan · Arsenal |
| 63' | 🟨 | Érik Lamela · Tottenham |
| 69' | 🟨 | Danny Rose · Tottenham |
| 74' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 84' | 🟨 | Fernando Llorente · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟥 | Lucas Torreira · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Wembley Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1705.00 |
| 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 3.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1784.99 | 1755.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.43 | 5.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 60.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.70 | 1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.23 | 27.94 |
| state index | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.13 | 1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 6.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |