← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 55% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.44 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 17% | 23% | 5.83 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Glenn Murray · Brighton |
| 58' | 🟨 | Aaron Mooy · Huddersfield |
| 63' | 🟨 | Steve Mounié · Huddersfield |
| 79' | ⚽ | Florin Andone · Brighton |
| 80' | 🟨 | Florin Andone · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1552.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1677.63 | 1572.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.47 | -5.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| league points | 27.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.17 | 25.46 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 330.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |