← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 48% | 54% | 2.03 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 29% | 21% | 3.43 | fair |
| Fulham win | 23% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 40' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 62' | 🟨 | Kevin McDonald · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 88.00 | 26.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1696.38 | 1647.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.88 | -14.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| league points | 24.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.36 | 27.07 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 103.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |