← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 87% | 85% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 10% | 11.44 | value: +19% |
| West Ham win | 5% | 5% | 21.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Ryan Fredericks · West Ham |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 87' | 🟨 | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 2 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 2 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 971.00 | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.42 |
| elo | 2101.64 | 1756.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.59 | -11.97 |
| eye test v1 | 1.19 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| league points | 65.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.41 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.16 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 28.61 |
| state index | 2.26 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.37 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 263.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |