← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 76% | 80% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 6.00 | fair |
| Watford win | 8% | 7% | 12.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 20' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 66' | ⚽ | Divock Origi · Liverpool |
| 79' | 🟨 | Craig Cathcart · Watford |
| 79' | ⚽ | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 82' | 🟨 | Adam Masina · Watford |
| 82' | ⚽ | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 706.00 | 422.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.37 |
| elo | 2051.84 | 1765.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.75 | 22.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.81 |
| league points | 66.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.26 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.61 | 28.68 |
| state index | 1.65 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.84 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 263.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |