← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 41% | 27% | 2.39 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 30% | 36% | 3.31 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 29% | 37% | 3.32 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 41' | 🟨 | Martin Kelly · Crystal Palace |
| 52' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
| 66' | ⚽ | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 69' | 🟨 | Alexis Sánchez · Man United |
| 81' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ashley Young · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Romelu Lukaku · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 544.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.16 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1761.17 | 1973.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.19 | 9.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.80 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.85 |
| league points | 30.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 28.57 | 26.26 |
| state index | 0.92 | 1.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.46 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 274.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |