← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 69% | 69% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.22 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 12% | 11% | 8.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Mesut Özil · Arsenal |
| 27' | ⚽ | Henrikh Mkhitaryan · Arsenal |
| 30' | ⚽ | Lys Mousset · Bournemouth |
| 32' | 🟨 | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 36' | 🟨 | Sokratis · Arsenal |
| 47' | ⚽ | Laurent Koscielny · Arsenal |
| 59' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Arsenal |
| 69' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · Arsenal |
| 77' | 🟨 | Charlie Daniels · Bournemouth |
| 78' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 302.00 | 2340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.89 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1914.62 | 1744.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.05 | 18.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 67.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| league points | 53.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 25.02 |
| state index | 1.11 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 151.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |