← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 44% | 41% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.23 | value: +14% |
| Burnley win | 26% | 23% | 3.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Sean Longstaff · Newcastle |
| 24' | ⚽ | Fabian Schär · Newcastle |
| 38' | ⚽ | Sean Longstaff · Newcastle |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ben Mee · Burnley |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jeff Hendrick · Burnley |
| 88' | 🟨 | Peter Crouch · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 1092.00 | 2339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1735.61 | 1728.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.02 | 43.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 72.00 | 74.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| league points | 28.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | -2.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.31 | 28.19 |
| state index | 1.12 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.38 | -1.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 137.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |