← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 54% | 39% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.52 | value: +25% |
| Brighton win | 19% | 26% | 5.25 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Demarai Gray · Leicester |
| 23' | 🟨 | Martín Montoya · Brighton |
| 63' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 66' | ⚽ | Davy Pröpper · Brighton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 2.00 | 1548.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1736.08 | 1684.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.24 | -40.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 67.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| league points | 32.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.64 | 28.15 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 208.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |