← Premier League 2018-19 · Tue, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 46% | 37% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 19% | 3.37 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 25% | 44% | 3.95 | value: +72% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Leandro Bacuna · Cardiff |
| 14' | 🟨 | Sean Morrison · Cardiff |
| 41' | ⚽ | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Everton |
| 50' | 🟨 | Lucas Digne · Everton |
| 66' | ⚽ | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Everton |
| 81' | 🟨 | Josh Murphy · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days |
| 878.00 |
| 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1411.66 | 1544.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.49 | -38.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.00 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| league points | 25.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.38 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.31 | 25.30 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.46 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.16 |
| travel km | — | 219.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |