← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 51% | 50% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.39 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 20% | 27% | 4.86 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟥 | Tommy Smith · Huddersfield |
| 27' | 🟨 | DeAndre Yedlin · Newcastle |
| 46' | ⚽ | Salomón Rondón · Newcastle |
| 52' | ⚽ | Ayoze Pérez · Newcastle |
| 57' | 🟨 | Matt Ritchie · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 3 |
| 12 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | St James' Park |
| coach days | 1089.00 | 53.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1518.20 | 1379.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.95 | -13.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 72.40 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.51 |
| league points | 25.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.55 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 27.45 |
| state index | 0.11 | -1.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 147.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |